"This is a huge opportunity"—that was my first thought when I was asked whether we wanted to provide scientific support for the Basic Income Pilot Project. At last, we can move a debate that has been confined to philosophical salons for decades into social reality—and examine it through empirical social research. For this project, we are stepping out of the scientific ivory tower and into the heart of a socially relevant debate about Germany’s social security system. I am firmly convinced that this debate will become even more intense in the coming years.
Although similar experiments have been conducted worldwide under scientific supervision, their findings are of limited value to today's debate. A recently published meta-study shows that many experiments in OECD countries were either discontinued prematurely or date back to the mid-20th century and do not reflect the degree of globalisation and digitisation that we face today. The Finnish experiment, completed two years ago, does provide valuable insights—but only regarding the effects on unemployed people. In this respect, our pilot project is breaking new scientific ground in Germany.
Is it really about the basic income?
We want to determine whether an unconditional sum of money, paid out over a period of three years, leads to statistically significant changes in people's actions and perceptions. To do this, we are closely monitoring the lives of those who receive a basic income of 1,200 euros per month throughout the study period. But can changes in behaviour really be attributed to basic income? To test this, we have a control group—statistical twins, so to speak—similar to methods used in drug research. These individuals are very similar in key aspects and, ideally, differ only in one crucial respect: whether or not they receive basic income.
It is important that we conduct the first inquiry of the 120 study participants before the sampling process begins.
Civil society as a sponsor
This study is not commissioned research, but builds on decades of research conducted by the DIW Berlin (German Institute for Economic Research). Our analyses have shown that in Germany, support for a universal basic income is particularly strong among young, highly educated people at risk of poverty. However, since the summer of 2016, when Switzerland held a referendum on the issue, there has also been a broad social debate in Germany. For this reason, I believe it is justified to carry out such a complex field study, funded by donations from civil society—in a way, commissioned directly by the public itself.
What truth lies in the "Homo Oeconomicus"?
We now have the opportunity to test whether human behaviour truly aligns with the Homo Oeconomicus stereotype—that people only act when they receive incentives and rewards. Experimental economics has already shown that social behaviour is also influenced by justice, fairness, and equality, and that we have a keen sense of these principles.
But despite all the excitement surrounding the study, our field experiment will not answer every open question. It will, however, answer some of them.